The idea of having professional historians write
counterfactual historical essays is not new.
Not only does counterfactual discussion take place at some point in
nearly every graduate seminar, but as far back as Livy, historians have
included their speculations within the larger text of their historical
musings. In the 1930s, J.C.
Squire collected the musings of several noted historians, including
Hillaire Belloc, André Maurois and G.M. Trevelyan.
Robert Crowley revived the format in 1999 following the success of
a short project in the magazine MHQ.
He now returns again with the follow-up collection What If? 2:
Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been.
These essays focus on specific changes in history,
both military and political, and examine what actually happened and what a
different outcome might have meant for the Western world.
This gives a more balanced feel to the book than there was in What
If?, since the first book was specifically made up of military points
of divergence. One of the
interesting things about What If? 2 is that fact that nearly all of
the postulated points of divergence play into the idea of the Great Man
theory of history.
From Victor Davis
Hanson's opening conjecture of Socrates' death during the rout at Delium
to James Chace's examination of the presidency of Henry Wallace, the
historians subscribe to the idea that one man can make a difference.
William H. McNeill bucks this trend with his closing essay in which
potatoes do not exist. McNeill's essay serves to remind the reader
that history is not just what humans and civilizations do, but it is also
affected by the basic tools and resources which the Earth provides.
One of the weaknesses of the anthology is the
fact that nearly all of the essays focus on European history, whether in
Europe, North America or Australia. There
is little indication that the history of the rest of the world could have
any affect on the way our world has turned out.
The only essay which begins to address this is Cook’s “The
Chinese Discovery of the New World, 15th Century,” in which
the issue of change is the denial of Europeans from gaining hegemony in
North America.
Most
of the essayists represented in What If? 2 are professional
historians, not novelists. What this means is that while in many
cases the speculations are top notch, the presentation is not as
engrossing as it could be. Presumed exceptions, like the novelist
Caleb Carr, defy expectations by focusing mostly on the strategy and
tactics of a situation (the invasion of Europe during World War II)
than on the personalities which were involved.
The
essays in What If?2 are short, allowing the reader to dip into the
book and read a few conjectures without being overwhelmed. In
addition, all of them will provoke the reader to think about the actual
course of history (one of the primary purposes of counterfactual
speculation), even, or perhaps especially, when the reader disagrees with
the course of history stipulated by the essayist.
